Countdown to the Ugandan election --- a special report

With only a few days left to go before the momentous election of 2006, the pace of events in Uganda has picked up and Radio Katwe will, as usual, give the interested public the angles which nobody else can give, because we are outside the reach of the Uganda government in censoring, closing down, or controlling what we say.

We are not like Ugandan newspapers or radio stations which have to live with the fear of being shut down by the Broadcasting Council or the Government Media Centre, or State House.

As you read this, all hotel and motel rooms in Entebbe town have been booked by families and individuals preparing themselves for the worst.

Several Asian families have already left Uganda and there are reports that President Museveni's son, Major Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has also taken his family out of the country.

The FDC's polling agents around the country have been told not to take anything for granted and are being put on the alert.

The FDC has bought 12 satellite phones and during the voting period the phones will be connected to the PANAMSAT satellite network of South Africa.

Radio Katwe reported in January that the government planned to cut off the Celtel, MTN, and UTL mobile phone networks on election day to make it difficult for the population to know what is taking place during the government's effort at rigging.

The DP and UPC have also put their agents on the alert.

A source with contacts inside State House said that at the last minute, some cabinet Ministers could come out and pledge allegiance to the FDC, although Radio Katwe has not been able to confirm this with a second source.

President Museveni met foreign journalists at his Rwakitura home on Saturday, February 18, but details of what they discussed and the reason for the meeting are not yet available.

The European Union brought in observers who witnessed the recent election in Liberia and they say they are confident that they can detect any election tricks that might creep up in Uganda.

The most important question is where the Presidential Guard Brigade will be deployed on February 23.

It is common knowledge in Uganda that the rest of the regular army does not support Museveni and he can only count on the 12,000-man PGB, which has the best equipment in the army.

One arm of the PGB will have to be in Nyabushozi guarding the President as he casts his vote while the other will be in Ruhaama country both guarding First Lady Janet Museveni and voting for her in a contest where she is the underdog.

The third arm of the PGB will be deployed to guard key installations like Entebbe International Airport, the airforce base in Entebbe whose only valuable property there is the Presidential Jet.

The other part of the PGB is the Mechanized Brigade based in Masaka and commanded by Major Kainerugaba.

The rest of the PGB is spread out across the country where every army battalion has a PGB unit, presumably to counter any mutiny or coup attempt.

The source close to State House referred to earlier also said that in nearly every army barracks, the walls are dominated by posters of Colonel Kiiza Besigye, not those of Museveni as would be expected.

The situation is so sensitive that soldiers at the Makindye Military Police barracks for the past one week have been under virtual house arrest.

They are locked inside the barracks for most of the day until 6:00 p.m. and are only allowed to get out for two hours until 8:00 p.m. Even then, they must report exactly where they are going before they are allowed out.

Sources in the barracks have told Radio Katwe that the measure was taken after it was discovered that most of the Military Police were sneaking out to go and attend Besigye's rallies.

With the army not on Museveni's side except for the PGB, anything could happen on February 23.

If for example the people in Arua, Mbale, Kabale, Masaka, Masindi, Soroti or Jinja feel that Besigye has won the election but the government is trying to rig the votes, the same demonstrations which broke out when Besigye was arrested on November 14, 2005 could be repeated across the country.

Most likely, the police and regular army would join in the demonstrations or would refuse to obey orders to shoot at the crowds. In such a situation, the PGB would find it impossible to spread itself all over the country to crush such a mass uprising.

A situation that becomes fluid after the voting has ended would favour the opposition.